War in Syria Department
I do not have to translate El Murid words, I hope. Yandex translation is a crap but you’ll find out the tragic truth. Slowly, step by step El Murid has been analyzing oncoming messages and “news” trying to present the Cause why Putin started run away from Syria unexpectedly.
So far fine. But El Murid didn’t give probable explanation what triggered the ultimatum.
The markers and processes
From: El Murid, 17-Mar-2016 09:29 pm
(Click to enlarge) © Vincent Kessler / Reuters, From Running on empty: Russia has less than three decades of oil remaining
– “I note that another marker of events that preceded an urgent withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria, events that began to develop at the end of the first decade of March, can be called an unusual letter-the requirement of the Central Bank to accelerate the implementation of the National payment system and serve to connect all Russian banks outlets and organizations based on the acquiring their service, by June 1 of the current year.
I already wrote that produced an outstanding victory, after which I had to skedaddle out of Syria, with the Syria linked little. The reasons that prompted the Russian leadership samenot from the face and rapidly to meet the heroes of the Syrian war at home, generally lie outside the plane by military achievements or failures – most likely, Putin’s statement that Russian military had generally fulfilled its tasks, only covering a more compelling reason had to withdraw.
Just today the Chairman of the joint chiefs of staff U.S. army, said at the hearings that Russia did not fulfill the task of fighting with the Islamic state.
It seems that the ultimatum, which forced the Kremlin during 9-14 March to undertake immediately a huge number of events, culminating in a forced scene in the office of Putin, where he gave the General Orders, still existed. In what form is the question, but it’s actually details.
There are only two options, what with America could threaten Russia so that there was no other way to react than like the present one. The first is, of course, oil (and possibly gas) embargo. Second off Russia from the system of international payments. Well, or a combination of these threats.
In General, no need to invent anything, everything was – it did with Iran, so that the technical capabilities for such events quite worked out. Two other characteristic features: Iran, like Russia, is an important trading partner of Europe, and the embargo of Iranian oil from the European countries immediately put it in front of an extremely heavy situation. The second feature of Iranian assets in American banks. What, in General, it is logical: the oil trade is in dollars, which means that the dollar reserves of Iran controlled by the United States.In Russia the situation is similar, in addition, we are holders of us securities, denominated in the same dollars, which means we only American receipts, funds is among Americans. In this case, we again set records, even in times of severe crisis buying U.S. securities and financing the American economy.
Similar conditions dictate similar approaches. The only difference between Russia and Iran, which requires adjustment of the scenario is the trading volumes of the Russian oil and gas. Russia exports about 3 times more oil than Iran before the embargo, so the approach to making requirements needed otherwise.
To publicly declare such an ultimatum is impossible. For obvious reasons: his announcement predictably will cause a sharp rise in oil prices that could derail the relatively ustakanilos oil market. If the ultimatum Russia will bounce back will be no less dangerous. Nobody needs these somersaults here and there, so the very threat it is more logical to nominate the non-public. That looks like it was made – nothing else to explain a four-day rally in the Russian leadership is impossible.
Well, the last of the guesses – the visit of Kissinger in February. It always appears before significant reversals of policy, and could, in General terms, describe the situation, preparing the client for the inevitable. Kissinger – not the messenger, so he hardly drove any specific suggestions or God forbid, a threat. Rather, it was a pleasant conversation with the expression of General concern about the complexity of modern life and nostalgia for the glorious days when the sun was warmer and the grass is greener.
As for the ultimatum. I don’t think a clerk brought to the Kremlin a list of all personal accounts of the leadership of Russia is, of course, a slap and a right hook, but to drop everything and obey, and without prior discussion, and once in the mode of execution of the threat must be very serious.
Naturally, the assumption about the threat of disconnection and the embargo is still an assumption, although gradually it will be possible to say something more definitely is to hide such events fully technically newsvine. But in my opinion, such an assumption explains at this point nearly everything connected with inexplicable victory of Russia in Syria. And therefore suggests not only what it was, but what could be next.“