Kremlin Matrix Department
Read full text clicking hyperlink below. Comment to the text by Maxim Kalashnikov are to be placed in the next post. Of course, no one is coerced by anyone (apart from all World MSM outlets) so you do not have to believe in every point touched by the author. I think many of the author’s predictions or even “premonitions” are sucked out from the kind of wishful thinking rubbish.
Well, well, reading further the results of Russia’s disintegration would lead to militarization of neighbors and that’d be horrific scenario for all the nations. The USA already created for its nation police state, so what would be done scaring societies with the famous Russian Bear Went Nuts I do not want to imagine. Anyway some of the points about Russian economy are valid.
BTW. not changing Kremlin economic course for 15 years and adhering to the American financial system dictated Russia in the first years of 1990s (in times of Yeltsin and other Russian liberals drunken with “happiness” aka amount of loot) cannot be named Kremlin’s betrayal of Russian Nation? (The end of the text is a pathetic B.S., alas.)
Lights Out for the Putin Regime
From: Foreign Affairs, By Alexander J. Motyl, January 27, 2016
(Click to enlarge) Russian President Vladimir Putin skates during a training session of participants of the Night Ice Hockey League in Krasnaya Polyana, Sochi, Russia, January 6, 2016. Aleksey Nikolskyi / Reuters
– “Russian President Vladimir Putin used to seem invincible. Today, he and his regime look enervated, confused, and desperate. Increasingly, both Russian and Western commentators suggest that Russia may be on the verge of deep instability, possibly even collapse.“
– “This perceptual shift is unsurprising. Last year, Russia was basking in the glow of its annexation of Crimea and aggression in the Donbas. The economy, although stagnant, seemed stable. Putin was running circles around Western policymakers and domestic critics. His popularity was sky-high. Now it is only his popularity that remains; everything else has turned for the worse. Crimea and the Donbas are economic hellholes and huge drains on Russian resources. The war with Ukraine has stalemated. Energy prices are collapsing, and the Russian economy is in recession. Putin’s punitive economic measures against Ukraine, Turkey, and the West have only harmed the Russian economy further. Meanwhile, the country’s intervention in Syria is poised to become a quagmire.
Things are probably much worse for Russia than this cursory survey of negative trends suggests. The country is weathering three crises brought about by Putin’s rule—and Russia’s foreign-policy misadventures in Ukraine and Syria are only exacerbating them.
First, the Russian economy is in free fall. That oil and gas prices are unlikely to rise much anytime soon is bad enough. Far worse, Russia’s energy-dependent economy is unreformed, uncompetitive, and un-modernized and will remain so as long as it serves as a wealth-producing machine for Russia’s political elite.
Second, Putin’s political system is disintegrating. His brand of authoritarian centralization was supposed to create a strong “power vertical” that would bring order to the administrative apparatus, rid it of corruption, and subordinate regional Russian and non-Russian elites to Moscow’s will. Instead, over-centralization has produced the opposite effect, fragmenting the bureaucracy, encouraging bureaucrats to pursue their own interests, and enabling regional elites to become increasingly insubordinate—with Ramzan Kadyrov, Putin’s strongman in Chechnya, being the prime example.
The problem for Putin—and for Russia—is that the political–economic system is resistant to change. Such a dysfunctional economy is sustainable only if it is controlled by a self-serving bureaucratic caste that places its own interests above those of the country. In turn, a deeply corrupt authoritarian system needs to have a dictator at its core, one who coordinates and balances elite interests and appetites. Putin’s innovation is to have transformed himself into a cult-like figure whose legitimacy depends on his seemingly boundless youth and vigor.(…)“