Sukhoi for Tomatoes Department
I like El Murid insightful remarks very much. I love few of his expressions so much I borrow them. Like this one – “Kremlin has exchanged his military plane to Turkish tomatoes”. But pay attention to the last part on this page where El Murid wrote about “serious players” in Syria. Not for the first time Kremlin’s moves look like being decided ad hoc, according to situation but being startled. Those “serious players” were known and could be accounted for in any plan with all gamut of ramifications. If they were incorporated, El Murid looks being too nasty. If not, he writes about sad things, highly critical but true things.
The next part hidden in “read more” is even harsher. Not without justified reasons. Do you recall 080808 – Georian attack on Russian forces in South Ossetia? When Russia took up the glove and counterattacked successfully, NATO or the US wanted to send their forces to Georgia through Black Sea? What Russia did? She moved her nukes from underground and ground military facilities, the US satellites could snapshot the weapons and document that form of ultimatum. Who cares for Russian (covert) ultimatum(s) now if they are issued at all?
* Russian-led Coalition Heading for ‘Stunning Victory’ in Syria
* Pentagon insists Russia violated Turkish airspace, calls for calm on both sides
* Russian Defense Ministry denies claims that Su-34 violated Turkish border
* Turkey claims Russian aircraft violates its airspace
* Conchita Wurst also when you want to meet
From: Andrey Chervonets, 31 January, 0:40
The Turks pounce on the news. Only I do not understand what purpose – to find a pretext for meeting with Putin (this is a good option, not to stay in the eyes of his people “omitted”) or trying to find formal clues to close the Straits?
From: El Murid, 31-Jan-2016 01:11 pm
– “Yesterday’s worsening of relations with Turkey again started verbal. Flew our plane to the Turkish space or not – the issue is really minor and insignificant. The main thing is that Erdogan is ready to shoot down the next.“
– “His logic is rational: Kremlin has exchanged his military plane to Turkish tomatoes. It is, in fact, all you need to know about sovereignty and military power of Russia. Erdogan, like any man in his place, was forced to take some timeout to make sure – does he has a dream and now anyone can do anything with Russia, and he is for nothing. Was not a dream. So he does what logic tells him.
The incident with the downed Sukhoi showed immediately a lot of circumstances extremely unpleasant for the Kremlin.
Firstly, no one in Moscow seriously understood (and perhaps does not understand) the whole situation in Syria and around it. The decision about the military operation was made as it is now fashionable – on the knee. On the off chance. Without consideration of consequences and of all opposing factors and circumstances. Indirectly, this confirmed the utter bewilderment of the highest Russian leadership: “What are the Turkomans?” In the Kremlin did not hide the fact that they almost never heard about them.
Secondly, the incident with the aircraft showed that the entire military operation was planned very primitive: arrive, bomb over it first. Any opposition from any side are not provided. It was assumed that the whole war will be a walk on the beach – what to be afraid of any savages that they’ll do to us. It turned out that apart from the savages, our actions displeased much more serious players and the opposition of them do not calculate. Hence the utter bewilderment with emotional pain, “why – we were hit in the back.”
Well, the main thing – the Kremlin has demonstrated that it is absolutely not capable adequately to react. Adequately considering consequences. Short and medium term. In response to the attack of our aircraft were undertaken asymmetric steps and it definitely provokes Turkey for its continued provocations. Well, here is Turkey and expressed readiness to continue his experiments. The external players have already expressed their willingness to support Turkey, so in any case, if NATO last time tried to distance itself from the conflict, so that time it was needed Russia began to respect the airspace of Turkey – without going into details, whether this was or not a violation.
Meanwhile, Russia is increasingly drawn into the conflict. Just yesterday I met with a man who for three months was in Syria, travelled from Deir ez-Zor to Palmyra, Damascus, HOMS, Latakia, was next to the boiler and Rastanski in Aleppo. The Syrians, he said, are encouraged by the help of Russia but the army was dead tired and just does not want to die. Progress at 4 months looks very small when all good reports. Our country is increasingly drawn into a ground operation he saw, and with Russians-gunners, and infantry in general – everything is within the logic of the extension of the conflict. While not very fast – but the dynamics is as follows. Hence the Kremlin’s desire to quickly finish the diplomatic part, to be able at any time to make the legs (have opportunity to leave) – but who now will allow to do that? Saying about the claw and the bird is right just now.
And this is another demonstration of the intellectual power of the Kremlin strategists. The Turks in this case are just taking the chance it appeared to them – nothing more.
PS. Well, in confirmation. The message RIA “Novosti” with reference to Turkish “Anadolu” Agency:
media: on air bases of the Turkish air force announced an increased level of anxiety. This level of anxiety, according to military sources, means “always ready to everything” and the immediate response of pilots to threats without coordination with command. “