Cirque Du Monde of Morons Department
Who will betray Russia
From: rambler.novosti, January 12, 08:13
– “ A conflict situation arising from Russia with neighbouring countries, will continue in 2016. And can be added new, and most unexpected. For example, Mongolia or Montenegro. Where and at what economic and political reasons Russia may quarrel with the recent friends, understood “Газета.Ru”.
We cannot choose our neighbours, they better be friends or at least to maintain smooth relations. Just for the reason that peace is more profitable confrontation. But it is not always. Conflicts with Turkey and Egypt, long-standing and trusted partners, is another confirmation of this. The peaceful coexistence is teetering on the brink sometimes where, like, for conflict there is no ground. But there is water and a reason to keep its border neighbor.
Mongolia has planned the construction of a dam and cascade “Suren” on the river Selenga and its tributaries. But the problem is that the Selenga river is the main tributary of the Russian lake Baikal, the Selenga river supplies about half of all water entering the lake. In September 2015 the level of lake Baikal was fixed at 24 cm below the level of last year due to heat waves. The construction of dams on the Selenga Baikal dehydrate, would be detrimental to the ecosystem of Buryatia, but also can destabilize the hydroelectric power station of the Angarsk cascade.(…)“
– “(…) Greenpeace and the environmental organization “Rivers without borders” raise the question of the closure of the Mongolian project. To deal with this problem promised Vladimir Putin. But for Mongolia, the construction of hydroelectric power stations — a factor of economic survival and most important project that solves the problem of energy shortage and supply of electricity in China. In addition, a portion of the water flow of the Selenga will be used for the draining of the Gobi desert. Together with the PRC, which implements the project “Green wall of China”
Grant joined the world Bank and Chinese banks and French companies. The conflict gets at the global level, I am sure the state Duma Deputy from Buryatia Mikhail Slipenchuk.
At the end of December Finland imposed a ban on border crossing with Russia on a Bicycle. Now to cross the border is possible only by car. For anecdotal, at first glance, the situation is a real problem. Through the Finnish border checkpoints Salla and Raya Jooseppi from Russia comes a flood of immigrants fleeing the war and conflict from the Middle East and Maghreb. The Ministry of internal Affairs of Finland has informed that the country reached the fourth place in Europe in the number of refugees in recalculation on one inhabitant. Russia, according to the Finns, cannot stem the rising tide of refugees, and the authorities of Finland have place them on the border, purchasing tents and containers.
In addition, the sticking point remains the project of construction of NPP “Hanhikivi” in Finland by the Gulf of Bothnia — with the participation of Rosatom. Finnish and Swedish “green” opposition to the project. They believe that the influence of the “peaceful atom” will have a negative impact on the numbers of salmon. MEPs from Finland and Sweden has sent a request to the European Commission: how Russia’s participation in the project is correlated with imposed against it sanctions. The EC said that sanctions against Russia do not apply to “peaceful atom”.
However, this topic is still potential conflict prior to the start of the project in 2024. The municipality of Pyhäjoki, on the territory of which is planned to launch a nuclear reactor, collected from the bottom of the Gulf of Bothnia coins and handed them to the head of “Rosatom Sergey Kirienko and his top managers. The representatives of Rosatom threw coins into the water in the arrival to the Peninsula, “to return”.
Montenegro was invited to join NATO. And it will take exactly. The Montenegrin contingent was composed of NATO forces in Afghanistan. The army will pass to NATO standards, sharing of intelligence. The real estate market in Montenegro, this news stirred up. For Russians, the beaches of Montenegro, in particular, Budva, have become “a second Sochi” and resort property in this country is in high demand. The heated demand the right to receive residence permit in Montenegro for buyers of any property. It’s enough to just have a minimum Bank account and insurance. But potential buyers from Russia and other countries are strained: the Russian foreign Ministry said that NATO continues to pose a threat to the national security of Russia, and membership of Montenegro as an example of such a threat. Russian business in Montenegro exactly nothing good is not shining. Will be introduced visas for Russian tourists and will be more difficult to visit the resort. Buyers from other countries see, whether Russian statements or look for more persuasive arguments.
Skilful mouth — Kyrgyzstan. The country’s accession to the Eurasian Union has been postponed five times. “Under the road map, which someone has approved, to enter we will not. Do you not know me? To push something to me impossible. Too I’ve grown stronger!“ — proudly declared head of Kyrgyzstan Almazbek Atambayev in 2014. And barely set foot in the Eurasian Union, Kyrgyzstan started to clash with Russia. Atambayev, summarizing the results of 2015, said, for example, that does not believe in the participation of Russia in the Kyrgyz energy projects.
The agreement on construction of Kambarata and the upper Naryn cascade of HPPs was signed almost 4 years ago. Russian business has pledged to invest more than $700 million “unfortunately, Russia cannot meet its obligations,” — said Atambayev, adding that Kyrgyzstan started to look for another investor for the project.
Moscow gave to understand that the Kyrgyz are partly to blame themselves — has not been able to provide a platform for the construction of power plants. But the main reason is different — against the cascade of power plants argue Uzbekistan and other Central Asian republics.
In Central Asia there might be a war if Kyrgyzstan will start construction of hydropower plants on transboundary rivers. This is not once warned the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov. The cascade will leave the ditches without water, and the Aral sea will dry up. Karimov called on the UN to intervene in the situation and “to undertake a comprehensive international examination, before starting to build or sign with some great Nations documents on the construction of hydroelectric power station”.
“A great state” — a veiled reference to Russia, and the country signing the international treaties without the examination and consent of the neighboring countries that is Kyrgyzstan. In limbo there is also the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power station with a capacity of 3.6 thousand MW on the Vakhsh river in Tajikistan. In this issue there are powerful political component: Kyrgyzstan is a member of the Eurasian economic Union, and the leader of Uzbekistan Karimov has repeatedly stated that his country will never enter into associations “like the former USSR” and more will not allow the placement on its territory of military bases of foreign States. It is clear that in this situation Moscow is not prepared to force the construction of hydraulic structures. The conflict is postponed but not solved.
China in 2016 will be the very country with which Russia has more economic conflicts. The interests of China, the second economy in the world, is behind the interests of almost all countries-partners of Russia in Asia. “Pivot to Asia”, which dreams of the Kremlin after introduction of sanctions of the West, so far does not go further than declarations of intent. Nowhere is this more apparent conflict of interest between Russia and China is manifested in the project of the so-called territories of priority development (TOR) in the far East and transport project “Economic belt of Great Silk Road” from China to European markets. Russia would like China to have paved most of the silk road on the territory of Russia. But Beijing is trying routes to Europe bypassing Russia. For example, through Kazakhstan, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia. However, the apparent confrontation between Moscow and Beijing will not allow, but to expect more or less significant economic effect while too.
The reasons for the conflicts Russia has accumulated with all the neighbors. The most dangerous and expensive — with Ukraine. With Bulgaria regarding the construction under the Black sea gas pipeline “South stream”. With Romania due to the entry of this country into NATO. With Moldova regarding Transnistria and Gagauzia. Virtually frozen relations with the Baltic States, Poland, Britain.
From Georgia after Saakashvili’s departure to Russia returned “Borjomi” with “Kindzmarauli”. But the territorial claims of Tbilisi remain in force. As claim by another neighbor — Japan. Sluggish, but posing a real threat to integration projects of the Kremlin in the post-Soviet space, remain trade relations with partners in the Eurasian economic Union — Kazakhstan and Belarus. Both countries are not ready to support the Russian embargo against Ukraine, which entered from 1 January in the free trade zone with the European Union.
“This means that the Eurasian Union is not something that falls apart, but becomes more a political Union than customs with a single external perimeter,” says Sergey Utkin, head of Department of strategic studies Centre of the situational analysis of the RAS.
Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, members of the Eurasian Union, while retaining a right, as WTO members, import goods from the EU, adds Utkin. In other words, the Eurasian Union and this part is not a unified economic space, and the conflicts between Russia and these countries can be aggravated because of deterioration of the economic situation of all developing economies and the weakening of regional currencies.
Summary 2015 is that countries along the border with Russia, they feared Moscow more than before and rapidly integrate with the North Atlantic Alliance. Germany proposes to increase defense spending and, ultimately, seek to create a pan-European army. “Russia is once again perceived as a country is unpredictable, as once was the Soviet Union and even worse. Then was the Soviet invasion, for example, in Hungary, and now Crimea is ours”, — said the first Vice-President of the Center for political technologies Alexei Makarkin.
Russia has not learned the flexibility to interact with neighbors, traditionally preferring pressure, says Makarkin. However, it is unlikely that in 2016 new conflicts will end once the embargo, he said.
“But I have apprehension. Although the field for maneuver at Russia in any case is saved, you can begin with the actual implementation of the Minsk agreements. But whether this political will is not clear,” says Utkin.
Experts agree that to hold back an avalanche of potential conflicts will be economic factor. “We cannot ignore economic realities. The Russian economy has gone into negative and conflict with neighbors and continue to pretend that someone out there outside blame for our economic problems — too expensive,” says Utkin.