Hi, readers. I invested my time heavily into corrections of quotes (in this one post especially). I look forward to spreading address of this blog to your friends, at least. Thank you. But the issue is about tragic situation of Russia (going more creepy day by day) thanks to Putin and his cronies. I was aware of the blunders and I did feel them. Not only me. Thankfully the other bloggers have the better propensity to write on Russia interesting and very captivating. But the most striking is the gap between contents of Russian propaganda in Russian MSM (TASS, Sputnik, RT) and the texts I read in independent free media everyday.
The war will sweep away Putin’s regime (the mechanics of the process)
From: kungurov, Do what you must, come what may, January 7th, 11:01
*) look for in my dictionary Kassandary -> Yandexiana
– “Plums*) (getting rid of) Putin is likely to be linked to the final surrender of Donbass. At least, the Kremlin has created all the conditions for external… we will say delicately, opponents took advantage of this. How to start any revolution (a coup, a putsch)? With the undermining of government legitimacy. Since power in Russia is extremely personalized, the loss of Putin’s legitimacy will destroy the entire system of government under the root. This is the Achilles’ heel of post-Soviet political system.“
– “If in the U.S. the President’s approval rating falls to zero, it does not threaten the stability of the system – will replace one clown with another. Example plum*) (disposing of) Nixon during Watergate proof. Americans don’t feel cold with horror, wondering “If not Obama, then who?”. Similarly, the Germans did not groan, “If not Merkel, who is?”. The Swiss are generally very little interested in the surname of the President, they associate themselves primarily with the community to which they belong. And surprisingly, very decentralized Swiss system of government is phenomenally stable for centuries.
I hope no one will argue with the fact that in Russia the words “power” and “Putin” are synonyms. You can give the name of at least one Minister, Governor, mayor or member of Parliament who has publicly declared that is the opponent of the President? Personally, I know of one Ilya Ponomarev, however he escaped to America and opposes from there. Another famous one Deputy of the regional legislative Assembly, who called Putin “jobnotes”*). But he lived after this long. Yeah, Nemtsov his name.
Of course, only people completely cut off from life, can think, if Putin carries out autocratic power. No, an individual Vladimir Putin is one of the attributes of power, talking head, the only aim of which is to ensure the legitimacy of power. And power is a collective Putin. The specific composition of the collective Putin may vary. For example, recently Yakunin has ceased to be “Putin”.
Differs and the weight of the participants of this organized criminal group. Formally, Medvedev is the second person in the country, and in moments of frequent absences individuals Putin – even the first. But agree that formally unrelated to the government Igor Sechin has an influence on policy much greater than a fool-IPhone*). But a Finnish citizen Timchenko, living in Switzerland, which in general does not associated with Russia, perhaps, will be the weightier Sechin. Or not? I honestly do not care who in the Kremlin patinate the most authoritative guy, I don’t care if the Hero of Russia the General-Major Kadyrov.
Now, an individual Putin, who plays ice hockey, mountain skiing, diving for amphoras, flying with white cranes, extinguish forest fires, labeet*) the piano, teaches English, sings songs, watch collector, indulge with gymnasts and kissing boys in the tummy – just a smoke screen, but if the screen will fall down and expose the naked king – the collective Putin, the collapse and all pacanet*). Therefore, the legitimacy of the Putin brand is the Foundation of the entire kleptocratic regime in Russia.
The legitimacy of power is now bursting at the seams. Yes, the rating possessed to 90%. Yes, cattle’s approval passiveness almost total. Yes, the complete absence of opposition (not to consider as those of soft patsy Navalny, can not win even in municipal elections in the province?). But the legitimacy of the state hangs in the balance. What is this legitimacy? Here I see two main factors – fed passivity and fear. With satiety, things are not bad, and very bad. In 2013, 49% of Russians survived on not exceeding 10 thousand rubles a month. According to 2015 those was less – only 46%. Cheers, welfare is growing! That’s just inflation-adjusted pre-crisis 10 thousand is $312, but today the same amount would be a mere $130. While 15% of the population is gearing up (“siquet”*), with only 8 thousand rubles per month or less, and 13% survive on less than 5 thousand. Comments here are unnecessary.
Therefore, the lack of a well-fed apathy mode is compensated by a larger share of fear. What Russians (roscience*) ) fear the most? Literally genetically embedded – if only there was no war. But the insanity lies in the fact that the Kremlin has started two wars: one in Ukraine, another in Syria that dying economy, to put it mildly, burdensome. That is, the masses are now not afraid of war, and that war will come home to us, if we don’t defeat the enemy a little blood on his site. Therefore the inner trend works to undermine the legitimacy of the regime inside the country everything is bad, absolutely nothing to brag about. Therefore, the legitimacy provided more and more through external trend – extraction of the Crimea, in the Donbas paranagama, successful “fight against ISIS” in Syria, the escalation of hatred against Turkey and America. This ensures the 90% rating of pasterka(K:?).
That’s just the Kremlin, putting its legitimacy in dependence on external factors, is caught in a deadly trap. If we form a motivational map, i.e. to split the legitimacy of Putin into components, to identify the factors that underpin the loyalty of the masses, we get the following:
– Putin, because he is the guarantor of the preservation of the Crimea;
– Putin, because otherwise Banderas*) will cut the Donbass (the factor of Ukrainophobia);
– Putin, because otherwise the state Department will arrange the Maidan (the factor of americanophobia);
– Putin, because otherwise DAISH massacre in Russia (the factor of terrorophobia).
In fact, the fear factor ensures that almost 100% of the regime’s legitimacy. Even on the part of the “Crimean” component of a rating, dominates, not the pathos of the Imperial expansion of the Russian world, namely the fear of a humiliating loss of production. In fact, almost exclusively this Patriota justify the war in the Donbass, saying, we would be happy not to interfere in Ukrainian Affairs, but are forced – if ukrop crush the Donbass, it will immediately raise the question of the return of the Crimea.
The logic in the words patrioti (patriots) is stupid, but from this it follows that Russia should strive to win the war – only this will finally remove the Crimean question from the agenda. And the Kremlin, provoking the war in the Donbass (all remember, how Putin has declared that will protect the Russians in the South-East?), immediately got scared, and does not allow even the thought of victory. A unique case in the history of the war is not for victory, not for production, not for protection from the enemy, but solely in order to reduce it to a tie. The war for the sake of saving face in particular Botox face.
That is why, when the Russian army invaded the territory of Ukraine under the guise of “holiday-makers”, actually defeated VSU in August-September 2014, when government forces fled in panic, came from Moscow a stop order, the insurgents have forbidden even to take the thrown opponent Mariupol. And immediately followed by the Minsk-1, the whole point of which was to haggle over the Kremlin conditions of honorable surrender.
Oops! And here the Kremlin suffers a catastrophe – neither the EU nor Ukraine, nor the States behind them, have not accepted from Putin’s proposals to end the party “draw”. They want only unconditional surrender – with the return of the Crimea, the payment of damages to the injured party. The Kremlin could not accept to these conditions, however, no trumps.
To continue the “war to a victorious end” Putin in the Donbas can not, because in this case will not be decorative (superficial) sanctions against individuals like prosecutor Timchenko “nyash-nyan”and fiscal, and real sanctions against Russia, as a state, up to a full trade embargo. Given the absolute dependence of the Russian economy from external markets and imports, it would mean almost instant collapse of the entire project “Resource Federation”. Believe me, in the current circumstances, the world can easily do without our oil, and no aluminum, especially because we are talking not about years, but rather weeks. That is, even the refusal of gas deliveries from Russia, if it happens in the summer, will not have any noticeable consequences for Europe (the main pre-customized to a dozen LNG terminals from Qatar). By the fall of the regime will collapse, the new government will be forced to capitulate on the conditions of the West and the gas again goes through the pipes.
Why the West still did not implement this scenario? And why risk bringing the matter to the uncontrolled chaos in a formally more nuclear power? Russia is not Afghanistan, not Libya, and even Syria, where you can put things on the bloody slide. Here the strategy is quite different – slow but sure strangulation of the victim, every minute, and loses the will to resist.
The Kremlin, feeling that his base is losing legitimacy, is losing the will to fight, goes to larger and larger concessions. In fact, in the Donbass, the Kremlin has already agreed to surrender in return for vague promises of special status for the rebel regions. Propaganda already began to explain to the redneck wisdom another of the HSP – like, we don’t just rent LuganDonietsko Kiev, we thus throws Ukraine “Chechnya”, which it will digest for decades, and until you digest it, the Crimea will be ours. Anyway, this is another question, who’s who digest. However, Putin suffered a resounding fiasco – Poroshenko cynically said that no special status no region even the “certain areas” in a unitary Ukrainian state will not receive.
Now answer the basic question: what will be the outcome of a chess game, if one player (the collective West) wants to win, and the other (collective Putin) is blackmailing his opponent the fact that in case of refusal of a draw he will not finish the game. But to refuse something he cannot! Surrender means defeat, albeit without spectacular mat, but defeat.
Стрелков ( Гиркин ): Путина свергнут свои же. Москва позорно капитулирует.
Strelkov ( Girkin ): Putin overthrown by their own. Moscow shamefully capitulates.
The failure of Donbass to finish the party means that the APU goes on the offensive and within three weeks LuganDonietsk without the intervention of the Russian army will be finished. And the interference of the “vacationers” will entail a new Minsk-3, where the collective Putin will have a position, even weaker than during the Minsk-1, regardless of where the front line will run.
In general it seems that the Kremlin is ready to allow the military defeat of Donbass or not? If he admits defeat LuganDonietsk there, Putin’s approval ratings will crash through the floor, because negative success inside the country to suffer a defeat on the external front means that the king did not justify the trust of the masses – not only allowed the war (which in itself is bad), but lost it. Formally he will lose her not NATO and the United States, and Ukraine. Can you imagine a greater disgrace for the possessed?
But the Kremlin also has other military issue – Syria. In this war Putin got into brand crazy hoping to “reset” the Ukrainian question. But it did not resolve the Ukrainian problem and got some new ones, including problems with Turkey, which had previously been considered almost a friend of the Russian Federation along with China and Venezuela. Now the Kremlin regime is reminiscent of an acrobat, and drunk, desperately poised over the bog, standing on two rotten hummocks of Syria and Ukraine. If at least one leg will break acrobat drown.
Now, say, hypothetically, that in may 2016 Ukraine begins a General offensive against the Donbass. West on this occasion unless expressed duty concern and calls parties to the conflict to dialogue. But the Kremlin will put before the fact: any interference in the conflict, or at least aid to the rebels will lead to the fact that in Syria the Assad regime is toppled. This is not easy, but very simple is to kill Assad himself. After all, there is not even a collective Assad, there is physical death of the dictator means a complete collapse of the regime.
Will not work to eliminate Assad? Yes and do not care, then the rebels will be given the command to begin the offensive. Not necessarily to storm Damascus, enough to move the front line 15 kilometres to Latakia, to make the airbase Hamim was in range of artillery fire. While the artillery at rebels will appear, so don’t worry about that, Turkish “Voentorg” will make his case. And Putin will to get his lags from Syria in shame.
Fail Mujahideen to push the front at 15 km? Do not care, from the current positions of the jihadists can turn Hmamin the airbase and the port of Latakia in ruins with MLRS. Where did they take rocket launchers? So “Voentorg” will give, and will announce that trophy. The Kremlin will start to scream with powerless hysterics “Withsevere, is a Turkish installation!”, but what can he do besides scream? Relations with Turkey are already ruined, the hands of Erdogan unleashed.
Realizing that the Syrian “knight’s move” has led Moscow into full ass, Putin began to haggle and at the capitulation in Syria. The meaning of this sentence is that the West is taking Russia in its antidisease coalition to save face, and in return Putin merges Assad. And again the master of mnogohodovok*) (of many paths/moves) shamefully screwed up. The West uhmylki*) (smiley) said that Putin’s help is not needed. In the end, in Syria for three coalitions – the Russian (Russia, Iran and Assad) Western (USA, UK, France, Turkey, the Kurds and FSA) and Saudi, which is essentially a branch of the Western coalition. I would assume that DISH also dancing to the tune of Washington. Chances to win Putin isn’t even hypothetical. But the probability to get caught up in the conflict, which will cannibalize more and more money and effort – absolutely.
The question arises: why the West, if can easily knock Russia out of Syria as described above, does not? Why? After all, it’s megagreeter: one your enemy (Putin) killing another enemy (DAYS*) = Daesh), without the slightest chance of success. And while Russia tightens in Syria, it will not be able to take on Ukraine. And if you take – you will receive a defeat in Syria and the collapse of the Putin regime. Or not get it, and there will be a Minsk-3 and slow strangulation aravii*) (RF) will continue. Absolutely the West will remain aloof in any case and wins and with someone’s else hands (Ukrainian or Mujahadeen). Yeah, ain’t a gambler Putin turned out to be a chess player? (literary: Yeah, from crappy Putin the thimblerigger has come out a checkmateist!)
Where West rush? Time is working against Putin. So the war will be. One never knows, “partners” in Afghanistan will drag Vova in yet. The legitimacy of the regime will continue to fall, oil is cheaper, the position of the cattle deteriorates. And a year (two, three, four, even five) Putin’s regime overthrown themselves as current stoned the Putinists-quilted jackets on the Tunisian scenario. But there is another variant of the collapse of the regime, more probable. (To be continued).“