Fontanka, by Anatoly Nesmiyan (El Murid), 30.12.2015 19:40
Mr. Anatoly Nesmiyan wrote about the Russian systemic crisis in his posts on his blog Situation – El Murid. I will quote him here frequently as fast as possible and when I came across something interesting from point of views of foreign readers. I applied this time other form of quoting. I’m curious how it proved itself.
Perhaps the most significant outcome for Russia last year is a dynamic ongoing systemic crisis for all without exclusions directions — in the economy, politics, social sphere. System it is because the reform can not be even theoretically — we got through this period, moreover, rapidly and without even trying to slow down.
In the basis of swelling problems managerial is collapsing — inability of the system to generate effective solutions that allow established contradictions and to emerge new proactive moves. Any momentous decisions of the past year we have taken — each of them were reactive, accepted in “catch-up” pace and often with a critical delay.
The war in Syria is the most striking example. Came in 2 or 3 years, Russia came into structured conflict that cannot be resolved by the victory of any side (one of them). Moreover, there are too parties — only in Syria there are at least four major subjects of the conflict, and each of the optional subject is torn apart by internal contradictions. In Iraq, another theater of military operations reaching full war, there are three, and even four such subjects. If anyone enters war, the foreign players (and without them it is meaningless to present) make a conglomerate of contradictions which grow till absolutely indecent sizes.
Four years emphatic distancing from this war (Syrian) changed our direct participation in it, which, by the way, was avoided by all external actors. This further complicated the course of the conflict – not bringing it closer to resolution. The price of delayed decision – another will not happen.
Same story with the economy, when all the predictions were overturned. In place of acting on future high oil prices which sported almost every senior official of Russia, it would be cool to make a real working anti-crisis program, bringing the economy to mobilization mode, more effective in the conditions encountered in full growth crisis.
The promised “turn to the East”, when it was assumed to reorient our exports to China, from collapsing European market due to sanctions, it has failed. And it failed stunningly: the fall of the turnovers with key Asian markets ranged from a quarter to a third of last year’s volumes. The decline of interest in the Eastern direction became clear after the double neglect by the President of a large and significant events. In September in Vladivostok, he preferred socializing with Steven Seagal instead of meeting with major Asian businessmen, to whom he gave the dutifully short speech. The meeting was widely announced, many of them came to Vladivostok specially for “the President”, and such a blatant demonstration caused even within those impenetrable people, outright resentment that they have brought to high-ranking Russian officials. Second openly dismissive sign — ignoring and the East Asia summit and APEC summit, where Putin just didn’t go. To the East, where symbolism has a special meaning, so clear demonstration was a sign.
Now begins the phasing of projects and the cancellation of Gazprom tenders on “Force of Siberia” (last week on two routes with a length of 350 km, this is 822 km) was only a formality.
Not to say that the problem (was created) only (by) “we”. Chinese “big Four Banks” has effectively joined the Western sanctions, refusing lending to the Russian economy. The logic is obvious: a choice between the collapsing Russian market and American and European were not in favor for our. Chinese do not have risk projects with the West and no doubt remained polite, but extremely hard issuing article in Xinhua (where) clearly said that until Russia will not overcome the systemic crisis, it may not count on China. The result is known — if in the last year from 116 billion of Chinese investment Russian part accounted only for 800 million, then in 2015 year even these figures may be at the end of the year left unreachable. Anyway, in the first half year they amounted to 300 million only.
So that management decisions have failed. The Eastern route is closed, and closed very tightly.
Built in Russia “vertical” control, which is based on loyalty, loyalty and loyalty, has come to its logical dead end. Each error has surname, a name, a patronymic. And for all the management mistakes you want to assign to guilty — otherwise the system begins to generate only the mistakes. However, to search blames among loyal people — it will develop operating system freezes. OpSys is not designed for such behavior, in its code there are not implemented such operation. But if so it works then inevitably more and more (users) will see the blue screen.
Good computer — it has a reset button. In the very worst case you can reinstall or upgrade the OS. Theoretically the same should be done with the Russian management system and there is no prohibitively difficulty in understanding what to do and how to do it. That’s a problem for any qualified graduate of any Academy of Management. However in practice, the restart of the Russian management system and what more, even updates, will require stepping on the interests of the existing clan structures. Structure, which has a stake in the existence of this management system — with all its defects and errors in code.
The main result 2015 can be called the inability to produce a reboot, which means that we again will respond to the contradictions and problems with growing late and more serious consequences. The subtlety is, that when shutdown still happens — eventually increasing errors simply will deadlock management system, as happened in 1917 and 1991. But who will reinstall it again?
End of quote