El Murid, 27-Dec-2015 03:45 am
If were to talk about the main results of this year for Russia, it seems that two of them would not be necessary to argue about.
The first result is Putin’s economic model which suffers an obvious failure. The prevailing myth about successful and effective solutions that make the economy grew, was based solely on the factor of high oil prices. This resource was squandered and looted by Putin’s friends and close associates without any impact on the economy. The problem of import substitution, undergoing for 15 year, demonstrated that the country has left no sector, which would not be critically dependent on foreign supplies and imported parts. The devaluation of the ruble in half did not have the effect that seriously rocked the economy in 98, and even residual in 2008.
During half a decade of Putin’s rule (Russian) economy has been simplifying and degrading. Of the 4 major export industries, giving each more than 10% of Russian exports, today were left only two — the exports of mineral products (40%) and export of energy products (39.5 per cent). Even metals with a 25% has fallen to 5% – it says everything to all about total loss of traditional Russian markets. The Arab spring has had one of their influences on redistribution within European market – primarily oil and gas. At first, Iran was thrown out of it and now Iran is to be used as a tool for squeezing out Russia, and Russia is being removed now out from European market on all directions.
In general, (when) those myths have been dispelled, it appeared that Putin’s model based on a single factor, which we have no control over, is incapacitated. Perhaps in 2015 the Russian propaganda has ceased to be convinced of the greatness and the genius of ideas and moved on to search for the enemies that are doing everything to make our lives miserable. Enemies are dreaming and looking for how to rob us and hide stolen (money) on Russian oligarchs’ accounts. What a mischievous persons!
The second main result of the 15 years, perhaps throughout the Putin’s era, was the definitive end of the entire Russian policy in Ukraine. He put a cross on the main and the only strategic project of the post-Soviet nomenclature – both Russian, and the present one, which still gravitate (towards) forces of objective reasons and to the remains of the Russian economy. The project of a common Eurasian space was one thing that could be tolerated with the presence in power of nomenclature thieves. However, this project was closely tied to the participation of the majority of the former Union republics — at least, the largest. The failure of any of them from the draft made it doubtful and unpromising. The defeat of Russia in Ukraine in 2013 and especially in 2014 has taken shape in 2015. This is the year it finally became clear that under no circumstances Ukraine will participate in any integration project in the post-Soviet space.
One may argue till a croak – did Putin surrender Donbass or did not surrender. And on what terms she will come back under Ukraine. One can speak evil and to bet – when Ukraine will fall apart. You can hiss and spit in anger at Ukraine, as do runaways – ukro-emigrants. It is possible – but meaningless. Ukraine is gone – and probably forever. Will she survive, will fall apart, will she be transformed – in fact it is purely perpendicular to the issue against the main one – the project of the EEU (The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU or EEU)) was touched. Without Ukraine it is empty space. Without Ukraine, its weight is insufficient to counteract competing projects: European, Chinese and especially two American unions at once.
The loss of The EAEU will be the end and other integration projects – primarily defense. Russia remains without allies – in fact, after the Crimea and so it became clear that the allies are very cautious to communicate with going insane Russian leadership.
Any development of the events around the Crimea, which would have led to a definite and final result would be understood and accepted. Russia could recognize the independence of Crimea, as it recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia could put up the junta along Khreshchatyk and to receive from Yanukovych”s consent to the annexation of Crimea to Russia. But Kreml took the most stupid of all possible solution – attached, but so that we all have questions. Well who in their right mind would deal with such imbeciles? No one wants to.
Everything else – the war in Donbass, war in Syria, a possible clash with Turkey, a very shaky situation in Central Asia are also very important, but most likely in one form or another will yield an outcome next year already. Something final, something intermediate. And while these crises continue to evolve they will be resolved later.
Russia made the first step toward its own decay. The loss of purpose of existence – is quite a good reason to make such a statement. I have already given definitions of Glazycheva – what is a program, a plan, a project and strategy. Strategy answers the question “Why?” The Russian nomenclature is not able to answer this question after the collapse of the EEU. It has no answer. Well, and cannot exist. Others should be given the answer – asking those present is useless. As politicians they are already dead, although they’d say something and even make. And, unfortunately, now they will be destroying the country – because to live without any goal is not capable.