The third world war inevitable? Forecast Sergei Glaziev
22-10-2014, 16:42 • Publ.: AL
The most dangerous period for Russia will come in the early 2020’s, when you begin retooling developed countries and China, and the United States and other Western countries will come out of depression 2008-2018, and will make new technological leap.
The risk of a third world war will persist until such time as the U.S. will not abandon its claims to global dominance. Along with the Ukrainian hearth kindling chaotic world war, the United States continues to support armed conflicts in Syria and Iraq to destabilize the situation in the middle East, to prepare the invasion of the Taliban and Islamic militants in Central Asia, to design a “color revolution” in Russia and other countries of the Eurasian integration, as well as to organize a coup d’etat in out-of-control Washington Latin America. For world war II U.S. push objective regularities of the global economic and political dynamics. Understanding them allows us to predict the military-political activity for the next decade.
The analysis of the economic and political dynamics shows that the most likely period of major regional military conflicts involving the United States and their satellites against Russia, 2015-2018
This is the period of the release of the new technological structure of the phase of labor in the growth phase, when completed the development of its technological trajectory and the modernization of the economy based on it. It was during this period of technological changes lead to changes in the structure of international relations. Country, other previously embarked on the growth wave of the new technological order, gain competitive advantages on the world market and start to press the former leaders who have to make great effort to exit the crisis of over-accumulation of capital in obsolete industrial-technological structures. Unfolding struggle between new and old leaders of techno-economic development for dominance on the world market, which leads to the growth of international tensions and provoke political and military conflicts, which still led to two world wars. Such period begins now and will last until 2020-2022 years, when finally formed structure of the new technological order, and the world economy will enter a phase of sustainable growth based on it.“
– “…It should be noted that the Ukrainian crisis began earlier projections.
If Yanukovych signed in November of the Association agreement with the EU, then everything would have happened in a year and a half later, at the time of the next presidential election.
By that time would have earned under this agreement mechanisms of management of economic, foreign and defence policy of Ukraine with the EU. Would have been already created and deployed on the border with Russia is now generated Ukrainian-Polish-Lithuanian battalions. Would have passed the testing procedures for joint action European and Ukrainian armed forces in the settlement of regional conflicts. Although the agreement provides for the obligation of Ukraine to act in these conflicts under the leadership of the EU, and to follow his foreign and defense policy, it is obvious that the real organization of hostilities will deal with NATO under the leadership of Washington.
There is no doubt that at the time of the presidential elections in the spring of 2015 would be applied the same technology replacement Yanukovych protégé US that during the coup last winter. Only the change of power would have held relatively legitimate way which excluded the Russian interference in Ukrainian Affairs, not to mention the reunion with the Crimea. Formed by the Americans from their agents in the government and security forces in Kiev would have taken a course on Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the ousting of the Russian black sea fleet from the Crimea. Russia resisted would not Nazi gangs, and quite legitimate Ukrainian-European forces, based on the whole military power of NATO. Sent US a legitimate Ukrainian government would blow cooperation with Russia in the defense industry, beginning no less frantic than it is now, the anti-Russian campaign in the media and forced Ukrainization South-East of Ukraine. Russia would be in a much worse position than it is now: after the reunification with the Crimea and the establishment of the Nazi regime in Kiev, illegitimate and criminal actions which condemn Ukraine on catastrophe and collapse.
Of course that engulfed Ukraine socio-economic disaster and the growing chaos in this area do not meet the interests of Russia, for which Ukraine has been and remains an integral part of the Russian world, associated with the RF technologically, economically and spiritually. Catastrophic scenario could be avoided if Yanukovych went on about American and European emissaries, defended the state from Nazi rebellion and did not allow a coup. However, for US it would be tantamount to defeat in the long anti-Russian campaign, which they conducted in Ukraine during the whole post-Soviet period. Therefore, it was made possible with the involvement of a giant political, informational and financial resources for the organization of the coup d’etat in Kiev with the transfer of control over Ukraine, the Pro-American agents of influence. Yes, this adventure – if Russia will conduct a competent and vigorous defense of themselves and the world from the American policy of unleashing chaotic world of war – USA risk to pay their ideological and political leadership. But, apparently, “Paris is worth a mass” American policy in the pursuit of maximum geostrategic “profit” has ceased to risks in mind.
From 2017, the U.S. will begin a new electoral cycle, which, apparently, will be involved in Russophobia as the ideological basis of the coming world war.
By the time the crisis state of the American financial system can result in reduction of budget expenditures, depreciation of the dollar and significant deterioration of living standards of the population. External aggression the US could choke on the middle East, to fail in Afghanistan and Iraq. The pressure of domestic problems and crises in foreign policy, on the one hand, will provoke an increase in the strength of American leadership, and on the other hand, to weaken his position. But in the case of intellectual, economic and military mobilization Russia has a chance not to lose in the conflict 2015-2018, as the U.S. and its satellites will not yet be ready to open aggression.
But in the period 2021-2025, Russia again can dramatically lag behind in technological and economic terms, which will devalue its defence capabilities, and dramatically strengthen internal social and ethnic conflicts, as happened with the Soviet Union in the late 1980s
American analysts from the CIA and other agencies directly bet on the collapse of Russia from the inside after 2020
It will happen, in their opinion, due to internal social and ethnic conflicts, triggered externally using social and regional disparities, as well as reducing the quality of life of our population.
For these purposes, the U.S. consistently grow among Russian political, business and intellectual elite of his “fifth column”, allocating for this purpose, according to some estimates, up to 10 billion dollars. in year. This is also evident in recent appointment as the new U.S. Ambassador to Russia’s most famous organizer of the “color revolutions” and has preview in the post-Soviet space, John Tefft.
To avoid the implementation of the negative for Russia scenario, leading to the collapse of the country, necessary system of internal and external policy of strengthening national security and economic self-sufficiency, improve the international competitiveness and the rapid development of national economy, social mobilization and modernization of the defense industry. By 2017, when the new technological structure will move into the growth phase, and the struggle for world leadership will reach maximum intensity, the Russian army should have a modern and effective weapons, Russian society to be cohesive and confident in their abilities, the Russian intellectual elite – possess new technologies, the Russian economy may be on the growth wave of the new technological order, and Russian policy and diplomacy is to organize a broad anti-war coalition of countries who are not interested in unleashing a new world war and is capable of concerted action to stop American aggression.
This international coalition is necessary not only to prevent war, but to win it, if the war will be inevitable.
Anti-war coalition could include:
European countries are involved in war against Russia against their national interests;
– BRICS countries, economic growth which can be torpedoed organized U.S. global destabilization;
– Korea, the countries of Indochina, who are not interested in the deterioration of relations with Russia;
countries of the Middle East, for which world war would mean the escalation of regional conflicts;
– Latin American countries of the Bolivarian Alliance for which the unwinding of a new world war meant the direct invasion of the United States;
– developing countries of the “Group of 77”, heiress of the Movement of non-aligned countries, traditionally opposed to wars, for a just world order.
As the motivation behind such a coalition should nominate common to all its participants threats expand U.S. global chaotic war. An important condition for the successful creation of such a coalition, as already mentioned above, is the deprivation of the U.S. monopoly on the ideological dominance by sequential exposure of the anti-human consequences of their interventions, by their soldiers mass killings of civilians, the devastating results of the Board of the American proxies in different countries.
You must destroy the American way of infallibility, to open the cynicism and deception on the part of American leaders, the disastrous consequences of their policy of double standards, incompetence and ignorance of the American officials and politicians.
Influential allies in creating the anti-war coalition could become religious organizations that oppose planting cult of permissiveness and corruption, undermining the family and other universal values. They would help the coalition to develop and offer the world a new unifying ideology emanating from the recovery unshakable moral limitations of human tyranny. Constructive role could be played by international humanitarian and anti-fascist organizations. Ally could become the world’s scientific and expert community, acting from a position of sustainable development and generating uniting humanity development projects.
Action anti-war coalition should focus not only on the exposure and destruction of the political domination of the United States, but, above all, to undermine American military and political power, based on the issue of the dollar as world currency. In case of continuation of aggressive actions by the United States of fomenting world war, they must include the renunciation of the use of the dollar in bilateral trade and dollar instruments for placement of the gold and foreign currency assets.
Anti-war coalition should develop a positive program device global financial and economic architecture on the principles of mutual benefit, equality and respect for national sovereignty.
We have already mentioned the necessary measures for financial stabilization, improve regulation of the financial market, banking, financial and investment institutions, to stimulate the growth of new technological structure and progressive structural changes, the formation of the new institutions. They need to eliminate the fundamental causes of the global crisis.
According to “Izborsk club”